The global market for atrial fibrillation treatment will more than double in value from US$4.6bn in 2013 to peak sales of US$9.4bn in 2020, before declining to US$5.7bn by 2023 as new oral anticoagulants become genericised, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s latest report states that new oral anticoagulants have seen substantial uptake since the launch of Pradaxa in 2010, with the drugs accounting for approximately 70% of all atrial fibrillation therapeutics sales in 2013.
Haylyn Wong, GlobalData’s senior analyst covering cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, says the increased adoption of new oral anticoagulants will be the primary driver of market growth across the eight major markets, comprising the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada, over the forecast period.
Wong explains: “Prior to the approval of the first new oral anticoagulants, namely Pradaxa, Xarelto and Eliquis, the anticoagulant market for the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients was dominated by generic vitamin K antagonists, particularly warfarin. However, GlobalData expects that the advances offered by new oral anticoagulants in terms of improved safety and the lack of a need for routine monitoring will see these treatments taking market share away from warfarin.”
The analyst adds that the atrial fibrillation therapeutics market will also be driven by the recent launch of a fourth new oral anticoagulant, Daiichi-Sankyo’s Savaysa, which will provide an additional anticoagulant treatment option for atrial fibrillation patients.
Wong continues: “New oral anticoagulants are also expected to be used as an alternative to antiplatelet therapy, particularly aspirin use, which has historically been prescribed for atrial fibrillation patients with a low risk of stroke. This is due to revised atrial fibrillation treatment guidelines downgrading the use of aspirin and a lack of evidence for the product’s efficacy in preventing stroke in these patients.”
“Additionally, the antiarrhythmic drugs ranolazine/dronedarone and vanoxerine, developed by Gilead and ChanRx, respectively, are expected to launch late in the forecast period. However, neither will reach peak sales by 2023, with only ranolazine/dronedarone making an early impact as a potential drug candidate for the maintenance of sinus rhythm,” the analyst concludes.